The scaling limit where both the size of the training set $P$ and the width $N$ of a deep neural network grow at the same rate, the so-called proportional-width regime, has been intensely studied for shallow, single-hidden-layer networks. However, extending these non-perturbative results from shallow architectures to deep non-linear networks has proven very challenging. Here we present an effective approximate approach to predict the generalization performance of Bayesian multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) of fixed depth $L$ on arbitrary high-dimensional data. We propose an equivalent Wishart Ansatz to capture the dominant stochastic fluctuations of the hierarchical empirical kernels of MLPs. This allows us to perform a large deviation analysis for the partition function of MLPs in the proportional limit, expressed in terms of a renormalized NNGP kernel. In this description, even strong representation learning in the proportional limit is encoded in at most $L$ scalar order parameters, determined self-consistently. Extending the approach to convolutional architectures (CNNs), we identify a hierarchical local kernel renormalization mechanism, which allows to quantify more complex data-dependent transformations of the large-width kernel in CNNs due to finite-width effects. We test our effective theory against sampling experiments from the Bayesian posterior of finite deep neural networks with depths $L \sim O(10)$ and $P\sim O(10^3)$ on classic benchmark datasets, finding overall very good agreement together with two distinct types of systematic deviations.

Many applications involve multi-type event data. Understanding the complex influences of the events on each other is critical to discover useful knowledge and to predict future events and their types. Existing methods either ignore or partially account for these influences. Recent works use recurrent neural networks to model the event rate. While being highly expressive, they couple all the temporal dependencies in a black-box and can hardly extract meaningful knowledge. More important, most methods assume an exponential time decay of the influence strength, which is over-simplified and can miss many important strength varying patterns.

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate functions-on predictors, providing an emerging notion of complexity and feature learning directly at the functional level. We show that the posterior output rate function is obtained by a joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels, in contrast with fixed-kernel (NNGP) theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the resulting predictions accurately describe finite-width behavior for moderately sized networks, capturing non-Gaussian tails, posterior deformation, and data-dependent kernel selection effects.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) has been the method of choice for learning large-scale non-convex models. While a general analysis of when SGD works has been elusive, there has been a lot of recent progress in understanding the convergence of Gradient Flow (GF) on the population loss, partly due to the simplicity thatacontinuous-time analysis buysus.

However, existing ways of implementing the ME-HP for such data are either inflexible, as the exogenous (background) rate functions are typically constant and the endogenous (excitation) rate functions are specified parametrically, or inefficient, as inference usually relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with high computational costs.

The mutually-exciting Hawkes process (ME-HP) is a natural choice to model reciprocity, which is an important attribute of continuous-time edge (dyadic) data. However, existing ways of implementing the ME-HP for such data are either inflexible, as the exogenous (background) rate functions are typically constant and the endogenous (excitation) rate functions are specified parametrically, or inefficient, as inference usually relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods with high computational costs. To address these limitations, we discuss various approaches to model design, and develop three variants of non-parametric point processes for continuous-time edge modelling (CTEM). The resulting models are highly adaptable as they generate intensity functions through sigmoidal Gaussian processes, and so provide greater modelling flexibility than parametric forms. The models are implemented via a fast variational inference method enabled by a novel edge modelling construction. The superior performance of the proposed CTEM models is demonstrated through extensive experimental evaluations on four real-world continuous-time edge data sets.

We consider the problem of identifying the best arm in stochastic Multi-Armed Bandits (MABs) using a fixed sampling budget.